What the S&P 500 would look like without AI leaders

June 1, 2026 - 19:44

A new analysis from Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre reveals a stark divide in the S&P 500's performance when the biggest artificial intelligence stocks are removed from the equation. The data shows that the index's recent gains are heavily concentrated in a handful of AI leaders, masking a much weaker performance across the broader market.

Without companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and other top AI players, the S&P 500's year-to-date return would be significantly lower, potentially even negative. This concentration risk has been a growing concern for investors, as a few mega-cap stocks now account for an outsized share of the index's total value. The trend highlights how the AI boom has created a two-tier market: one where a small group of tech stocks soar while the rest struggle to keep pace.

This divergence comes amid other major market events, including the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has added volatility to energy prices and global trade. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and narrow market leadership raises questions about the sustainability of the current rally. If AI stocks were to falter, the broader index could face a sharp correction, exposing how dependent the market has become on a single theme.